Analysis of the 2006 FIBA Women's World Championship Groups
Sunday 05 February 2006
Firstly, let's explain the format of the World Championships.
Stage 1: There are 16 teams drawn into four groups: A, B, C and D. Each team in each group plays each other and the top 3 teams from each group qualify for the next stage.
Stage 2 sees the top 3 teams from Group A and B combine to form Group E and likewise the top 3 teams from Group C and D combine to form Group F. The teams of Group E and F then play the teams they haven't yet played in their respective groups (i.e the other qualifiers from the other group). Then the draw of the elimination phase is determined from the combined standings of Stage 1 and Stage 2. The top four teams from Group E and F go into the elimination stage.
Elimination stage:
Quarter finals
Game A - E1 vs F4
Game B - F2 vs E3
Game C - E2 vs F3
Game D - F1 vs E4
Semi finals
Game E - Winner A vs Winner B
Game F - Winner C vs Winner D
Bronze medal game - Loser E vs Loser F
Gold medal game - Winner E vs Winner F
Now let's analyse the groups
Group A
Brazil
Spain
Argentina
Korea
Hosts Brazil have a reasonably comfortable group. Spain is a solid team who gave the Brazilians a bit of a scare in the quarter finals at Athens but Brazil are at home and have superior depth. Arcain vs Valdemoro has the makings for a matchup to remember. Argentina's women's team are not even close to the level of their men's and I'm sure the Brazilians would enjoy beating up on them. Spain would deal with the Argentinians reasonably comfortably as well. Brazil will also want payback on Korea after the debacle at the last World Championships and that will be easily accomplished, given the Koreans' decline as of late.
Argentina vs Korea is the group's most intriguing matchup and will probably decide who's the final qualifier from the group. The Argentinians did not perform that well at the last championship of the Americas and Korea's unique brand of ball may cause them trouble. However, Korea are going through a transition stage (they came last at Athens) and they may not have the talent to get over Argentina. I'll reluctantly pick Korea for the moment.
Group B
Australia
Lithuania
Canada
Senegal
In my opinion, Australia has the easiest group out of the top 4 seeds. Lithuania did well in the group stages of Eurobasket 2005 but faded badly at the end. It's nice to see Canada back in the World Champs but with TSB, a bunch of college players and a bunch of lower grade players in Europe, they're not going to challenge Australia (or probably Lithuania either). As a sidenote, is SDS going to make herself available for the World Champs?
Senegal is clearly the odd one out and I think it was very generous of FIBA to give the Africans two qualification spots for the World Champs.
Group C
United States
Russia
China
Nigeria
The Group of Death?
Well not really. US fans freaking out about Russia don't need to worry too much - the Russians generally start off slow and sometimes you get the impression they're tanking the early games. A good example of this is Eurobasket 2005: they lost two games in the group stage, to Lithuania and Spain, who I'd consider to be obviously inferior to Russian. It would be best to play the Russians this early because they're usually not close to their peak.
If I was the Russians though, I'd be wary of China. I think they could take out Nigeria with ease (and their bunch of naturalised Americans) but China may be a bit of a threat. I don't like Tom Maher but he does know the international game well and the Chinese women are on the rise again. China has a couple of up and coming big players to throw at Russia now and the Russian perimeter D is iffy at the best of times. It should be an interesting clash but I'd have to go with Russia, mainly because of their experience.
Nigeria is the odd one out. They might have stood a better chance if drawn against Argentina or Canada but this isn't a friendly group for them.
Group D
Czech Republic
France
Cuba
Chinese Taipei
This is the most interesting group out of the first four because I think it's the most evenly matched group.
For those who don't know, yes the Czech Republic took out the Russians in Eurobasket 2005, thus gaining the fourth #1 seed. However, I think they are easily the most vulnerable of the top four seeds: Nemcova has just retired from international basketball; Vodichkova is on the outer and 2003 Eurobasket MVP Lucie Blahuskova is plagued with back problems. They still have a good team, led by 6'3" Eva Viteckova (great inside/outside game) and veteran 2 guard Hana Machova and are still a good threat for a medal but have a tough road ahead of them.
The Czechs beat France by 20 in Eurobasket last year, but France were not at full strength. Guard Edwige Lawson skipped the Euro Championships for the WNBA and she is one of their most potent offensive weapons. It remains to be seen whether she'll rejoin them for the World Champs campaigns but I'm guessing yes. The French still rely heavily on their old guard (Melain, Sauret-Gillespie, Antibe) but they have a bunch of promising youngsters like point guard Celine Dumerc and post Emmeline Ndongue. The X-Factor for them could be Allison Feaster, who now has French nationality and is eligible to be picked for the national team. She would add valuable outside shooting and experience to a French team who really needs all the talent it can get to compete. The French only came 5th at Eurobasket 2005 though and their aging perimeter and lack of an inside game compared to other teams is a problem.
The Cubans are always hard to predict because they generally don't let their players play overseas and aren't the most accessible of teams. They did win the Championships of the Americas last year (albeit against a Brazilian team not close to full strength). Their stars of old, post Yamilet Martinez and point guard Licet Castillo are aging but other players have emerged like post Yakelyn Plutin, who was MVP of the Championships of the Americas.
How would I rank them? Probably Czechs at #1, the Cubans at #2 and the French at #3. Chinese Taipei are easily the odd ones out here but they're making slow progress, establishing themselves as the #3 Asian team with their defeat of Japan at the 2005 Asian Championships.
Group E
Well there's only one key matchup here: Brazil vs Australia.
There's a bit of interesting recent history between the two. At the last World Championships in China, Brazil's 1 point victory at this very same stage put Australia on the path to meet the US in the semis. However, Australia defeated Brazil in the semi finals at Athens, 88-75. Australia had trouble with Alessandria and Iziane, but Brazil had problems guarding the whole Australian team full stop. I expect the matchup to be much closer with Brazil stepping up a notch due to being at home and the fact this will be the last hitout for a couple of their veterans but I'd slightly favour Australia at the moment due to their better talent and the continuing development of support players like Suzy Batkovic. There's a lot at stake here; the winner is likely to avoid a dangerous team in the first elimination round and the US in the semis.
I expect Spain and Lithuania to take up the other two spots but they're both pretty much fodder for their likely Group F opponents.
Group F
It's the uber group of death.
I expect the US to cruise through this stage but the other five will be fighting tooth and nail for the three qualification spots. All of the team from Group D will be gulping for breath: they'll all have to play the US, Russia and probably China and that's a nasty trio to play at once. Russia will have to shrug off their habit of cruising till the elimination stages, otherwise they might find themselves with a loss or two extra here and a potentially nasty crossover game against Australia or Brazil.
I think Russia and the Czech Republic will make it through reasonably safely but the 4th spot will be a real battle between China, Cuba and France.
Comments
How did they come up with those groupings? They're horrible!
Surely it should be allocated in a calculated manner using seedings rather than putting 3 top teams into a single group like they have done with Group C.
Handy for Australia anyway. We virtually get practice games to start off the tournament.
Posted by: Completely Random Opals Supporter | Sunday 05 February 2006