A closer look at the Phoenix Mercury

Sunday 05 February 2006

I said I'd do this at the end of last season but late is better than never, I guess. Just as a note for those who don't know, the Phoenix Mercury are the team I primarily follow in the WNBA.

Guards

Diversity of skills in the backcourt was an issue for Phoenix but I feel this has been partially rectified with the trade of Anna DeForge for Kelly Miller. Anna DeForge is one of the best pure shooters around with the ability to light up for thirty every night, but I always thought she was too similar to Diana Taurasi in terms of game. A good backcourt needs a variety of skills, as the successful teams in the WNBA have shown. While Kelly Miller is not as strong a scorer as DeForge, she brings a whole range of useful complementary skills that would help out Phoenix a lot. Miller is a better ball-handler, better penetrator, better decision maker, more athletic and a better defender than DeForge and unlike DeForge, she can play extended minutes at the 1 and give Taurasi the chance to play at her natural position at the 2.

I think a move to the 2 for Diana would help her game immensely. She's had to worry about ball-handling, initiating and running the offence as well as scoring in her first two years and while she could do it in college, it's much harder to do everything in the more athletic, more physical, more talent-concentrated WNBA.

With regards to backups, I think Niele Ivey makes a solid backup but she does have to work on being a scoring threat. She used to have a jumpshot - what happened to it? She's a good steady influence off the bench though and has good court smarts. I'm not sure how Belinda Snell would fit into Westhead's system: she's not particularly quick around the court but she's good in transition and is a fantastic streak shooter. Like Ivey, Snell has great court smarts and I hope Westhead gives her more of a chance than coach Graf did last year.

Forwards

Penny Taylor (or as I like to call her "The Money") has developed nicely over the last couple of years and is one of the most well-rounded players in the WNBA. I hope that the subtraction of Anna DeForge will enable her to get more shots in the offence and she'll fit nicely into Westhead's offence because she is one of the best finishers around.

There are several backups at the wing. Shereka Wright is a useful utility perimeter player off the bench. She sounds like a good fit for Westhead's system with her versatility and solid court game. One thing I'd like to see her do is be more aggressive off the dribble, like she was in college. Angelina Williams is the Mercury's current long term project. She has a lot of potential but got almost no coaching in college at Illinois. I've heard comparisons to Deanna Nolan bandied about and it will be interesting to see how she's progressed over the offseason. I'd say both of them are pretty safe, unless we get a good perimeter defensive player.

There's a glut of players at the 4, led by Czech star Kamila Vodichkova. It looks like Vodichkova's international career might be over, after she chose the WNBA over training with the Czech national team in for the last couple of major tournaments (Athens Olympics and Eurobasket 2005). She set career highs in almost every single category last year, which goes to show that age doesn't weary all and also that a change in scenery can do wonders for your career. I'll be happy if she can keep up a similar level of production this year.

Backing her up are Sandora Irvin and Gwen Jackson. Irvin's rookie year was a bit underwhelming but I still think she has good upside. She is a good rebounder and shotblocker but her offensive game is raw and I think she wasn't quite prepared for the big step up. I think she could eventually become a solid rotation post but I think Irvin one of these players who needs a bit more time to adjust.

Gwen Jackson spent most of last year on the injury list after she tore her ACL. In her short time at the Mercury so far (played under one season), Jackson has shown she's big body who can hit the offensive boards and has some nice moves. I don't think there's anything fundamentally wrong with Gwen's game but she just has to elevate her game. I hear she tears it up in practice a lot but she's often too tentative in games.

Centre

Well currently there's nobody here and barring Maria Stepanova appearing on our doorstep again, Kamila will play here. I have no idea about Maria's status - core money may be a good incentive for her to come but the Russian Basketball Federation throw money at her to stay with the team and train. I wonder about Maria's status with the Russian team if she does choose to go to the WNBA. The Russians have shown no compunctions in the past about dumping/punishing players who choose not to train with the team (Abrosimova, Baranova) but Maria is the anointed golden girl of Russian basketball and her combination of size, skills and (especially) experience makes her invaluable at the international level. Come on Maria, test the Russians' nerve!

Phoenix lost their backup centre to the expansion draft and while Ashley Robinson did make some good progress last year, I think it was the right call to leave her unprotected. Robinson has the makings to be a solid rebounder and shotblocker but is ineffectual on the offensive end (33% shooting for a POST? And a lot of them were missed putbacks/layups) and her player to player work on posts isn't that good either. I hope she'll continue her development in Chicago. The Mercury will miss her presence at the defensive end but I think it's replaceable.

Coaching

I am a bit worried about Westhead's system. It sounds demanding and inflexible and those two things aren't really compatible with the short WNBA season. Our team isn't the quickest around so it will be interesting to see whether he tries to alter the team to suit his style, or whether he adjusts his system a bit to suit the team. Regardless of whether this experiment succeeds or fails, it will be a spectacle to behold.

Needs to be addressed

#1 Starting-calibre post

Current post situation: Maria's unreliable, Kamila's nearing the end of her career and Sandora's probably a couple of seasons away. The Mercury needs another inside presence in order to compete night after night in the Big Bad West. The problem is that considering the free agent climate, any decent Restricted Free Agent post is going to have large offers matched, probably up to the max (see: Tamika Williams and Asjha Jones) and Unrestricted Free Agent posts are going to be overpaid by a fair bit. I would not be surprised to see Tamika Whitmore get close to max offers and Barb Farris and La'Keisha Frett offered fairly high amounts. I wouldn't mind having Farris or Frett in a backup role but I wouldn't get into an intense bidding war for them. I think the #2 pick could be excellent bait, considering the need for a PG is not so urgent anymore.

This year's draft doesn't look particularly appealing with regards to post players (though Debbie Merrill could be a sleeper) but 2007 and 2008 look to be better.

#2 Backcourt defence

The addition of Miller improves it but the Mercury's perimeter D is still pretty average. I would love to have a Chelsea Newton type stopper off the bench, who isn't a *total* offensive liability. Looking at the draft, Sherill Baker and Latangela Atkinson comes to mind but they'll probably be gone by the #19 pick. Looking at free agents, there's Stacey Thomas, Nikki McCray and current Mercury player Lisa Harrison but they fall into the "total offensive category". We might have to wait and see on this one.

#3 Real point guard?

This isn't really a high concern anymore but Phoenix might want to get a starting-calibre "real point guard" down the track. However, it might not be needed in the current system and a Kelly Miller/Diana Taurasi backcourt is nothing to sneeze at.

Outlook:

Unless the Mercury find some post help this season (through Maria or a trade or an unlikely FA signing), they look like a borderline playoff team at best. However, I'm sure they'll be entertaining to watch no matter. In the long term, it looks good for the Mercury, especially since their primary players are young and there will be a good influx of inside players in the next couple of years.