My projected protection list for the 2006 WNBA Expansion draft: Western Conference
Saturday 29 October 2005
Houston
Sheryl Swoopes
Tina Thompson
Michelle Snow
Dominique Canty
Dawn Staley (UFA)
Sancho Lyttle
No Arcain isn't much of a surprise if you think about it - she's old and not guaranteed to return in 2006. Even though Staley only has one year in her left, I think she's too valuable not to re-sign/protect (especially on an Arcain-less team).
Expansion prospects:
Kiesha Brown/Edwige Lawson/Roneeka Hodges - I think the term we're looking for here is "barrel scraping".
Los Angeles
Lisa Leslie
Chamique Holdsclaw
Nikki Teasley
Mwadi Mabika
Christi Thomas
Doneeka Hodges
I think the key question here is whether Tamecka Dixon and Tamika Whitmore have to be protected. I think Dixon is a pretty easy no - L.A have been trying to get rid of her for a while and her injury proneness and plummeting production doesn't help. I wouldn't be surprised to see her on a different team next year, especially with the emergence of Doneeka Hodges as a decent rotation guard. As for Whitmore, she was on a high salary and Toler likes her but if the asking rate is too much, she may not be retained and not worth coring if L.A has any designations left. There is also Christi Thomas waiting in the wings at a much cheaper salary.
Expansion prospects:
Laura Macchi - Was a pleasant surprise in 2004 but had a non-descript 2005. She's a solid scorer and has good international experience but would she turn up to the Sky if drafted by them?
Raffaella Masciadri - If you want an Italian, Macchi is probably the way to go. Masciadri doesn't really provide anything different and isn't as good as Macchi.
Minnesota
Nicole Ohlde
Svetlana Abrosimova
Vanessa Hayden
Tamika Williams
Chandi Jones
Stacey Lovelace-Tolbert
No point guard in there? Well neither of them really performed well last season (admittedly, the rest of the team was pretty crap as well) and if the Lynx lost one point guard, they'd still have the other. I think Lovelace-Tolbert's bench scoring would be more valued, on a team that struggles on the offensive end.
Expansion prospects:
Kristi Harrower - I like Harrower's game: she's tough and is a capable floor leader. Howeber, I think the Sky might be looking for somebody with more upside, cheaper and is guaranteed to turn up every year.
Amber Jacobs - Similar type of player to Harrower but a bit bigger, a better shooter and not as good a floor leader with significantly less experience. I think there are better prospects out there.
Tynesha Lewis - Had a good season with Sting in 2004 bot got mired in Lacey's black hole of doom in 2005 and never really recovered. At her best, she's a solid all-round guard who can score and is possibly a borderline starter. Certainly worth a good look from Chicago.
Amanda Lassiter - A good defensive player with a questionable outside shot. Could be a good pickup if the Sky are looking for a perimeter defender.
Kristen Mann - A forward with a good inside/outside game and can rebound. Could be attractive due to her upside.
Phoenix
Diana Taurasi
Penny Taylor
Anna DeForge
Kamila Vodichkova
Sandora Irvin
Ashley Robinson
Yes, Maria Stepanova is not on the list. She's talented but is not guaranteed to turn up every year and shouldn't be in anybody's long term plans. It's been suggested that Irvin will be left unprotected but she has potential and one crap year doesn't mean much. The sixth spot was a tough one - I went with Robinson in the end because she has size and some potential (please work on finishing, Ashley!) and the Mercury will retain either Wright or Williams in any case.
Expansion prospects:
Shereka Wright - A good penetrator, has developed a better outside and an all-round solid perimeter utility player. Definitely a strong contender for a pick.
Angelina Williams - A great athlete with huge upside but was somewhat undercoached at Illinois. Another strong contender for a pick and may be more likely than Wright because she's from Chicago and her upside is bigger than Wright's.
Gwen Jackson - Solid body who crashes the boards hard. Spent most of the last season dealing with injury problems and a crowded rotation. She would be another solid expansion pick (unfortunately for Chicago, they can only take one per team)
Niele Ivey - A point guard with some pedigree but has faded to the fringes of the WNBA. She's a good decision maker but her lack of offence really holds her back. Worth a look due to her experience.
San Antonio
Marie Ferdinand
Shannon Johnson (UFA)
Katie Feenstra
Latoya Thomas
Kendra Wecker
Chantelle Anderson
Johnson may be overrated as a point guard but she's still a good player and San Antonio isn't guaranteed to get a better guard in upcoming offseason. She still has some trade value if they want to get rid of her. I don't think fellow UFA Wendy Palmer-Daniel has to be protected though. Palmer-Daniel had a surprisingly good season in 2005 but she's aging and I think her contract situation is up in the air, especially if Thomas returns to form. Anderson gets the last protection spot mainly because of her size.
Expansion prospects:
Bernadette N'goyisa - Raw post player but I think she has good upside. I don't think she will have issues with international play either (she's of Congolese nationality). It would be very interesting to see what Cowens could do with her.
Shyra Ely - Showed some potential as a rotation forward in her rookie season but nothing's really stood out about her. There are better forward options out there.
Dalma Ivanyi - One of Europe's best point guards but is ideally a bench guard in the WNBA. She has a nice shot but hasn't proven to be a good decision maker in the WNBA. Somebody to think about but N'goyisa is probably a better option and there are better point guard options out there.
Sacramento
Yolanda Griffith
Ticha Penicheiro (UFA)
DeMya Walker
Nicole Powell
Rebekkah Brunson
Kara Lawson
I think the WNBA's edict will force Sacramento to protect Penicheiro which leaves a big dilemma - Lawson or Newton? Lawson is the better shooter and can play the point but Newton is Sacramento's best perimeter defender and was one of the things that tipped them over the edge into championship glory. I think Lawson wins out because of her experience and versatility in the backcourt.
Expansion prospects:
Chelsea Newton - Great defender and a starter on a championship team. She has to raise her offensive game to another level and she would certainly get the chance to prove that in Chicago (I think she can).
Kristin Haynie - Haynie's tough and a solid defender but her decision making and offensive game isn't up to scratch yet. I think there's some upside to be tapped here and the Sky may go for her, depending on their player mix.
Hamchetou Maiga - Athletic forward with hustles hard but has a limited offensive game. I don't think she'd do well on an expansion team where her weaknesses will be emphasised.
Erin Buescher - Shooting 70% from the field will attract anybody's eye but I don't think she could replicate that if she was on the Sky. There are better forward options out there.
Seattle
Lauren Jackson
Sue Bird
Betty Lennox (UFA)
Janell Burse
Suzy Batkovic
Tanisha Wright
I think Seattle will protect Betty Lennox. Despite her streakiness and ball-hog tendencies, I think they will re-sign her because there's nobody else better out there who could be acquired easily. Wright is in over Castro-Marques because Wright is insurance for Lennox and Castro-Marques is not guaranteed to return in 2006. Castro-Marques has better potential but Wright will be there every year. Batkovic is protected because of the "don't leave big players with some talent unprotected" principle.
Expansion prospects:
Iziane Castro-Marques - I really like Castro-Marques' potential and I think she could develop into a real force on offence (something Chicago could use). On the downside, her attendance at the WNBA is not guaranteed and is certainly questionable for next year. I think she may be good enough to take a gamble on.
Final list of strong expansion candidates
Just to sum up, here are a bunch of players from the West who I think have a good chance of showing up on Chicago's list on the 15th:
Tynesha Lewis/Amanda Lassiter/Kristen Mann (Minnesota)
Shereka Wright/Angelina Williams/Gwen Jackson/Niele Ivey (Phoenix)
Chelsea Newton/Kristin Haynie (Sacramento)
Bernadette N'goyisa (San Antonio)
Iziane Castro-Marques (Seattle)
Comments
Sac coach John W. said he wants to trade his 2006 1st rd draft pick to chicago so he can keep his whole team in tact. He may even give them both picks b/c he has the 13th and 14th picks in the draft
Posted by: TJ | Sunday 30 October 2005
i thought a team only had to protect their UFA if they want to CORE them....i dont see Sea coring Lennox or San coring Pee Wee or Hou coring Staley...they may throw a lot of money at them but not MAX salary
Also you only get to core 2 players on your roster...Sea has Bird and Jackson and Hou has Swoopes and Thompson...San is the only team that can afford to core their UFA
Posted by: TJ | Sunday 30 October 2005
I'm not really aware of the current core status of various teams so I didn't take that into account. Thanks for the info.
In regards to the protecting UFAs thing, it's been a bit vague. You do have to protect players you intend to core but you also might have to protect UFAs you intend to re-sign. The only purpose of this is to take up more room on protection lists so that there's a bigger pool of players for Chicago to pick from. I don't think it means that teams have asserted some sort of right over UFAs even though they have "protected" them.
I think teams will play it safe and protect high profile free agents they intend to re-sign. The league has made it clear they will come down hard on any perceived collusion between teams and players.
If I'm Chicago, I would not touch Sacramento's picks. A Sacramento rotation player is more valuable than the 13th/14th picks of the 2006 draft.
Posted by: Insane Platypus | Sunday 30 October 2005
The way I've come to understand how "coring" works, Seattle doesn't have to core Bird or Jackson. Bird is already under contract for another year and Jackson is a RFA, so if another team did happen to offer Jackson a contract, Seattle has ten days to match. No need to use coring space on either player, but I could be wrong.
Posted by: Shed | Monday 31 October 2005
hi Minn. should trade for a new coach. this coach has only been with high school teams and she treats this team like a high team. abrosimova plays her best when she is allowed to play most of the game but this coach takes her out most of the time, mainly after she gets the team moving with 4 to six pts and a couple of rebounds in a row. you put dt on this wnba agenda list and all you people are afraid to take her or the leagus to task. i can garuntee that if you allow sveta to take 20 to 30 shots a game she would lead the league, but she is not on the agenda. as far as the russian barbi-doll, dt's team did not go any where without her, i would keep ker and tell dt that there are 5 or 6 other players on the team.. thanks for the time thad
Posted by: thad | Friday 04 November 2005