My projected protection list for the 2006 WNBA Expansion draft: Eastern Conference
Thursday 27 October 2005
The expansion draft is coming up in November and the details are as follows.
Each team can protect up to six players. Chicago will select six players and once they pick a player from a team, they cannot pick any other player on that team. Teams cannot protect unrestricted free agents but there is a catch: apparently teams must protect players they intend to core.
It's obviously designed to give Chicago a shot at better players in the expansion draft. There has been extensive discussion about this on the boards, including whether it breaches the CBA (I'm assuming the union and the WNBA came to an agreement outside the CBA), whether teams will try to resort to a bit of chicanery to try and get around this and how is it going to be enforced.
The league has also made teams pledge that they don't make any agreements with unrestricted free agents prior to the expansion draft. I don't think teams will try anything silly because the WNBA has stated it will come down hard on any perceived collusion (remember Joe Smith and the T-Wolves?). Essentially, if teams have an intention of re-signing their own free agents and they will pay the max or close to it (and they'll earn a high amount on their new contracts), I believe they will play it safe and core/protect them. I should mention that this is only my interpretation of the league's actions and I could be wrong.
Now to my thoughts on the list of protected players. I'll do the Eastern Conference today and the Western Conference in the next couple of days
Charlotte
Tammy Sutton-Brown
Helen Darling
Janel McCarville
Jia Perkins
Tangela Smith
Sheri Sam
Charlotte is one of the more interesting ones - after an atrocious year, do they look to keep veterans or do they dump salary and go for youth? Minnesota fans with daydreams about McCarville being unprotected are going to be disappointed - McCarville did have a substandard year but I really doubt Trudi Lacey is going to leave her #1 pick unprotected, even if it's just for pride (and McCarville's salary is cap friendly). Those with daydreams about Tammy Sutton-Brown being left unprotected will also be disappointed, you do not leave 6'4" players with some talent ripe for the picking with no compensation (even if they are underachievers).
Smith and Sam are candidates for "too expensive and too old" considerations but I think Lacey will stick with her highly priced free agents because I doubt Charlotte could lure in anybody better with the salary savings.
Allison Feaster is off the list for a couple of reasons - #1 she's pregnant and might not be back next year and even if she does play, she won't be in shape; #2 she's already seemingly in the twilight of her career with her numbers dropping off in the last couple of years and #3 from what I know, she is the highest paid player on the Charlotte team and is overpaid for her output. I wouldn't be surprised if Lacey did protect her but I think Charlotte has enough decent young talent/vets worth protecting over her.
Expansion targets:
Allison Feaster - See above and while she's a decent enough player, she probably won't be back in good playing form until 2007. If she is unprotected, it would be interesting to see whether Chicago would shell out for her.
Kelly Mazzante - A college scorer who has lost her shot in the pros. It's possible she'll pull a Nicole Powell and get better in a new regime but I think she's limited with not much upside.
Teana Miller - Decent backup post. Hasn't really improved since her rookie season but she did have a baby in between. Conditioning is an issue but even decent backup pure centres are rare in the WNBA. She'll get a good look from Chicago.
Adrienne Goodson - Too old for an expansion team to consider seriously.
Kristen Rasmussen - Rasmussen has beaten the odds from the dire 2000 draft and has become a pretty useful utility forward who can do a bit of everything. A well-travelled player, I think she's a prime candidate to be taken in the expansion draft.
Ayana Walker - Went from starter on the Shock to the waiver wire to Charlotte's bench. Has a decent floor game but is floating between the forward positions in the W. Worth a look but I think there are better options from the Sting to choose from.
Connecticut
Lindsay Whalen
Katie Douglas
Nykesha Sales (UFA)
Taj McWilliams-Franklin
Asjha Jones
Brooke Wyckoff
The first five are no-brainers and I do think the Sun will essentially be "forced" to core Nykesha Sales. There were a few contenders for the sixth spot - Margo Dydek brought height and a good shot alterer and rebounder but didn't bring it all the time (and has a huge salary); Erin Phillips is a rising star in Australia but when she'll turn up and how often is still a big mystery; the Sun also has several backup point guards worth a look but in the end, I went with Brooke Wyckoff. Wyckoff works hard on the floor, has developed a nice 3 point shot and is a player Thibault really likes.
Expansion targets:
Margo Dydek - Big, tall, skilled, slow, very inconsistent, EXPENSIVE. The Sky will look at her because of her height but I think they'd want to go with somebody younger, has more upside and is better value for money. I also don't think she'd necessarily turn up if drafted by the Sky (I believe she was going to bail on SASS, hence why they traded her).
Erin Phillips - She wouldn't be an expansion target if there was certainty about her future and that's the reason why I don't think Sky will go for her. Talent-wise, she has the potential to *at least* become a good WNBA starter.
Jen Derevjanik/Jamie Carey - Backup fodder who won't "wow" you but they've put in some solid work in their time. I'd rate Derevjanik as the better floor leader but Carey is willing to take the shot and is the better shooter. I think Chicago might be more attracted to Carey because of her offence but I wouldn't say either player is a high priority.
Detroit
Deanna Nolan
Katie Smith (UFA)
Swin Cash
Cheryl Ford
Ruth Riley
Kara Braxton
This was a pretty easy list to make - the five starters plus a promising young post. I think Detroit will retain Katie Smith - she provides them with much needed outside shooting and experience.
There's been suggestions that Detroit should leave Ruth Riley unprotected because of her substandard year but no, you do not give away 6'5" players with some talent for nothing. If you want to get rid of her, a sign and trade would work better but I think the Shock want to keep her.
Expansion targets:
Elaine Powell - More famous (or infamous) now for her fists of fury, Powell has gone from starting point guard of a championship team to backup point guard of a team struggling to reach its potential. Thuggishness aside, Powell is a decent point guard who still deserves at least 15-20 minutes on a good team and merits a good look from the Sky.
Plenette Pierson - Plenette did flourish a bit more in Detroit after being traded from Phoenix but that's because she found a role that suited her. In Phoenix, she was required to play big minutes, rebound and defend. In Detroit, she could just come off the bench and do what she does best - attack the basket relentlessly. She's worth a look due to her scoring and youth but her one-dimensionality is an issue.
Indiana
Tamika Catchings
Kelly Miller
Tan White
Tully Bevilaqua
Deanna Jackson
Kelly Schumacher
I did consider leaving Tully off the list, mainly because of her age and contract status (one year left and probable retirement) but Tully is such a key component of the team and there's nothing else that has to be urgently protected on Indy. Jackson and Schumacher are useful utility types off the bench. Jurgita Streimikyte is a decent rotation forward but I don't think she'll be back next year because Lithuania made the World Champs and she's not really worth protecting in absentia.
Expansion prospects:
Ebony Hoffman - I think there's a fair amount of undeveloped talent here (thanks to her lack of college coaching) but her conditioning does have to be watched carefully. I think she'd be one of the first players Chicago would be thinking about.
Yolanda Paige - Didn't see much court time in her rookie year but showed glimpses of potential. She could develop into a very solid floor leader. Certainly worth a look though Hoffman may get the nod over her.
Jurgita Stremikyte - As mentioned above, not likely to turn up next year and is mediocre and old. Not worth it.
New York
Becky Hammon (UFA)
Vickie Johnson (UFA)
Ann Wauters
Shameka Christon
La'Keisha Frett
Cathrine Kraayeveld
Lucky Liberty - they have so many UFAs, they can protect everybody of value because two of the UFAs won't be eligible for the expansion draft. They'd only have to protect two UFAs because there's only two core designations allowed (note: my interpretation and there is a possibility I am incorrect). I believe VJ got a core designation last time and see no reason why she won't get it again. Frett and Kraayeveld get the final two nods because they're forwards with size who have shown they can produce off the bench.
Expansion prospects:
Detrina White - Undersized bench banger. Brings energy but not much more. Decent on an established team like New York, not so much on an expansion team.
Loree Moore - Has size for a PG and is fast but needs to improve decision making. I think there are better PG prospects out there.
Washington
Alana Beard
Temeka Johnson
Delisha Milton-Jones (UFA)
Chasity Melvin
Coco Miller
Laurie Koehn
The Mystics aren't going to let Milton-Jones walk for nothing, because that would mean they have gotten nothing from the Holdsclaw trade except for one year of service in a non-playoff season. If she really doesn't want to play for the Mystics next year, they will try to organise a sign and trade.
I don't think the Mystics have to protect Charlotte Smith-Taylor, she's not worthy of coring considerations and it may even be questionable whether they will re-sign her or not (though I lean to the "they will" camp).
Koehn is in over Sanford because I think Adubato likes Koehn's game a lot and Sanford seemed to be in his doghouse a lot of the time. The Mystics would still have a backup post in either Sanford or Chones after the draft.
Expansion prospects:
Nakia Sanford - Sanford improved over the last couple of seasons before the latest rider on the Mystics coaching carousel derailed her. Sanford is big and knows how to use it (too well at times). Her size and experience (she's been around for a while) would make her an attractive prospect.
Tamicha Jackson - Fast and shoot-first, Jackson is like a rollercoaster. Unfortunately she tends to be more down than up. She's made a career of putting up ok numbers on middling/crap teams though and there is always a team willing to take a punt on her, hoping she'll finally get some discipline and blossom.
Kaayla Chones - I liked her game in college but she hasn't shown much in the WNBA. However she's stuck in the WNBA for a couple of years, is salary cap friendly and will merit a look.
Aiysha Smith - A decent post rotation player when playing but there's been talk that she won't be back.
Erica Taylor - She was an explosive scorer in college but didn't play in her rookie season because she wasn't quite in shape. She intend to report next year but I don't have any idea on what she's been doing and what state she's in. If she can replicate her college form, she'd go close to the top of the list but there's too many unknowns at this stage.
Final list of strong expansion candidates
Just to sum up, here are a bunch of players from the East who I think have a good chance of showing up on Chicago's list on the 15th:
Ebony Hoffman/Yolanda Paige (Indiana)
Elaine Powell/Plenette Pierson (Detroit)
Nakia Sanford (Washington)
Teana Miller (Charlotte)
Edit: Tamicha Jackson, Kristen Rasmussen and Adrienne Goodson are actually UNRESTRICTED free agents. I will look more closely at the free agent list next time...