Western Conference predictions
Sunday 22 May 2005
People wow over parity in the East but I think there's also a fair amount in the West. I think six teams have a good shot at making the playoffs with the hapless SASS being the odd one out.
#1 Los Angeles
It's possible L.A will run away with the title like some people are predicting but I don't think they're that much ahead of the field. I think L.A lost a lot of their mental toughness when they traded Delisha Milton-Jones and while I think LL can play with Claw - can Claw play with LL? It will also be interesting to see how the team meshes with coach Bibby during the season. If L.A's backcourt continue their disappearing act, they'll be lucky to get out of the first round of the playoffs.
#2 Sacramento
Sacramento has a good mix of vets (Griffith, Penicheiro) and youth (Powell, Lawson) and they have also significantly improved their backcourt depth. The key to the Monarchs is whether Walker and Powell can step up their games to another level and also whether Coach Whit can be a bit more flexible (lack of flexibility cost Sac the conference finals against Seattle because their D wasn't equipped to handle Seattle's perimeter firepower).
#3 Phoenix
Without Penny Taylor and Kamila Vodichkova, Phoenix will have a rough start to the season but they will get better as the season goes along. I think interior strength is still an issue for Phoenix: Kamila can bang in the paint but she's not a prolific rebounder and has lost a step or two. Irvin is still a year or two from being starter-calibre. Ball handling is also an issue, especially if DT or Anna get in foul trouble (they will have to sacrifice a forward for a guard eventually IMHO). Phoenix has enough offensive firepower and additional experience to propel themselves into the playoffs this year but they're probably a year or two away from contending for the championship.
#4 Seattle
Seattle may not repeat this year but they'll be fine in the long run: they have the best young point guard in the world and the best young player in the world. There will be problems this year with the wing (non-existent) and centre (raw/inexperienced) but I think Burse/Batkovic will be a fine post tandem in the future and they will eventually acquire a decent all-round wing; they're not that uncommon. In the meantime, I'd expect a bit of an up and down year from them and how well they'll do depends on how the supporting cast does.
#5 Houston
Tina Thompson was a huge loss for the Comets - offensively and defensively. Even if she does play this season, I don't think she'll be making a significant impact. Phillips is a decent replacement, better in rebounding but not nearly as effective scoring-wise or on D. Swoopes and Arcain are a good 2/3 combo but they're not what they once were. The Comets have solid depth and will certainly be in the mix in the playoffs but a lack of a true PG (worse than Phoenix), lack of outside shooting and Van's dubious Xs and Os will prevent them from contending for the title.
#6 Minnesota
I suppose this is the "controversial" pick. SMS is a good coach and Nicole Ohlde seems to be the real deal but Smith's health is still an issue, small forward is still an issue (quantity does not make up for quality) and Vanessa Hayden could make a real impact... if she ever learned how to stop fouling. I also have a heretical opinion: I love Kristi Harrower but I don't think she is the PG to lead Minnesota to the promised land. Turnovers will certainly go down but she is short and slow. Maybe this wouldn't be as much an issue if she had a good PG complement but her backup Amber Jacobs is of average size, just as slow *and* turnover prone.
#7 San Antonio
Clarissa Wrightsil-Davis: this is your masterpiece. A team with questionable interior depth, trading a high pick in the deep 2004 draft for a point guard who thinks she's a 2 guard, essentially trading Margo Dydek for Chantelle Anderson (you can do better than that).
Dan Hughes is a good coach but it will take time for him to mould the team into something that he can use (don't expect Pee Wee to be hanging around in the long term). Here's hoping the fans stick around during the hard times.
Who will contend for the championship?
I think four teams have a good shot at winning the championship:
Los Angeles
Connecticut
Detroit
Sacramento
I think four teams have an outside shot at winning the championship:
Phoenix
Seattle
Houston
Minnesota