Olympics semi-finals preview
Friday 27 August 2004
Australia vs Brazil
I am reasonably confident about the Opals advancing to the gold medal game.
Not that's a particularly controversial statement as the Opals *are* favourites to win but here's a couple of reasons why I think the Opals will win:
#1 Defence. The Brazilian defence was strong against the Spanish the other night but the Opals' offence is a lot different to the Spanish. They have a much stronger inside game than the Spanish and they penetrate a lot more. I think the Brazilians are vulnerable to dribble penetration - they're quick enough and get in the passing lanes but I don't think their defensive fundamentals are all that good. One good example is Iziane - somebody pointed out (I forget who) that she defends from the SIDE instead from the front and you're not going to stop dribble penetration if you're defending from the side.
#2 Temperament. Jan Stirling made a comment about this, which I actually agree with (me giving Stirling props - the end of the world must be nigh):
'They (Brazil) are a team that plays with great emotion. We try to play with passion, but they play with emotion. Sometimes that's not for the best.'
Brazil can be like a manic depressive - there can be periods of time where they make every shot they take, force a bunch of turnovers, dominate the transition game and generally look like world-beaters. And then there's other times where they look really unfocused, make stupid turnovers and fouls and look like a D-grade social team. This is very much in evidence at this tournament - the games against Russia and Spain are good examples.
On the other hand, I have been very impressed with the Opals' mental fortitude in this tournament. They have been challenged in several games (pool games against Russia and Brazil) and have responded to the challenge every time. They look focused, their hunger for gold is apparent and they've been simply been more consistent.
There's always another side to the story though. Here's a couple of things that could trip the Opals up:
#1 Rebounding. I was disappointed with the Opals' boxing out in the pool game against Brazil. They allowed Brazil to get way too many offensive boards. The Brazilians are very good offensive rebounders by trade but if the Opals want to ensure victory, they'll have to keep them off the offensive glass. Jan Stirling has actually played Batkovic rather sparingly so far (19 mins a game) - I hope she's saving her up for times like this. A good rebounding lineup would be LJ, Batkovic and Snell at the 3.
#2 Brazil's explosive offence. Related a bit to temperament but the Opals cannot allow Brazil to get on a roll. The Opals did a good job of slowing down the tempo in the group game and they'll have to do it again because Brazil is most dangerous in the open court.
I think this is the Opals' game to lose. They've shown they have the ascendancy over Brazil and they've been in impeccable form for most of the tournament. Brazil will have to put together a full 40 mins of consistent, good basketball to win and I don't think they can do it against the Opals.
Australia by twelve
United States vs Russia
Out of the two games, this is probably the more interesting one. It's a rematch of the 2002 World Championship final, which saw the Russians push the US all the way. Both teams have retained most of the core of those teams with a few key additions; the Russians have added Maria Stepanova (earth to dumb commentators who don't do their research and just look at the piss poor media guide - SHE'S NOT 7 FOOT) while the Americans have added Tina Thompson, Diana Taurasi and Yolanda Griffith.
Both teams have mirrored each other's form - they've dominated on the inside while having streaky perimeter games (30% three point shooting for the US, 22% for the Russians). Expect an all-out war in the paint - the Russians are probably the only team in the competition that has a hope of matching the US in this department, with three frontline rotation players being 6'5" plus and able to use it. They can also throw in an extra big body or two if needed (Shchegoleva is a young, decent, rarely used 6'4" player).
It's imperative that both teams find their perimeter game, to spread the opposing defences, discourage the zone and make room in the paint for the big guns. This game could get very ugly if both teams continue their poor form from the perimeter. Both teams are also very turnover prone.
I've noted many similarities above but I think there is one key difference - perimeter defence. The Russians' perimeter D could be a lot better and they rely a lot on their bigs to help out on D. With patience and a bit of shooting form, the US can exploit this. The US perimeter D is outstanding and their press might reap big rewards against the poor ballhandling and decision making Russians.
The buildup to this game has been entertaining with the mind games and war of words in the media. I expect a hard fought game that will be VERY physical. I think the US' better D will get them through and we'll see the final that many wanted - United States vs Australia.
United States by five