Olympics quarter finals preview Part 2
Wednesday 25 August 2004
Spain vs Brazil
Spain's #2 in Group B not because they've played particularly well (though they did give the US a bit of a fight) - it's because the rest of the group have done utterly shite. Czech Republic, China and Korea were out of sorts due to various reasons and while New Zealand has played well, they're way behind Spain in terms of talent. On the other hand, the Brazilians have encountered several teams on the top of their form and they haven't looked too shabby themselves. Group A has been better preparation for what lies ahead.
As well as this difference in leadup competition, I think Brazil are the better team. Spain look a bit more cohesive and play better team D but Brazil's style of game isn't a good matchup for them. Brazil's big and athletic posts should wreak havoc on the slower Cebrian and Pons and they'll find the Brazilian penetration hard to stop. Brazil will find it hard themselves to stop the Spanish perimeter offence but the Spanish offence is a bit more one dimensional than the Brazilians' and I don't think the Spanish D is good enough to hold out the Brazilians.
Brazil by 7
Australia vs New Zealand
New Zealand are the biggest overachievers in the tourney. I doubt anyone would have predicted them to make the quarter finals - I don't think even they did (I believe they were aiming for 10th). Tom Maher has done a great job with the Tall Ferns (crappy nickname, I know) and with an exciting young PG at the helm (Angela Marino), this may be the start of the rise of NZ women's basketball.
That said, NZ are goners. I think Jan Stirling should rest LJ and start Snelly and Australia would probably still win by 20. Tom Maher is a better coach than Jan Stirling but if New Zealand was a WNBL team, it would be an average one.
Australia by 25 (only because they'll play the scrubs a lot)