My Olympics preview

Monday 16 August 2004

FCP chose not to run it... so here it is:

Group A prediction (in order from first to last):

Russia
Australia
Brazil
Greece
Japan
Nigeria

Group B prediction:

United States
China
Czech Republic
Spain
Korea
New Zealand

Medals prediction:

Gold - United States
Silver - Russia
Bronze - Australia
Unlucky 4th - China

MVP: Lauren Jackson

Yeah, I could be accused of bias but LJ is going to get the numbers and the Opals are going to perform solidly. Her importance to her team can only be matched by Janeth Arcain but most likely LJ will end up with the better numbers and the better team performance.

Three players that will make WNBA scouts go hmmmm:

Belinda Snell (Australia) - if she gets the chance to play. Physical perimeter player who can score points in a hurry.
Chen Nan (China) - has the skills and the athleticism, needs polishing.
Irina Ossipova (Russia) - Young Russian big with potential. Remember how the WNBA snared a young Maria Stepanova?

It must also be noted that a few Russian NT players *have* been drafted by WNBA teams already - guards Ilona Korstine (Phoenix) and Oxana Rakhmatullina (Houston). Korstine torched Team USA in the 2002 World Champs finals.

Top team most likely to disappoint: Russia

Most people rate the Russians but they have been erratic at major tourneys. Funnily enough, they've shone at World Championships but have bombed at Olympics (did not finish in top 4 at Atlanta or Sydney). They tend to cruise their way through the preliminary rounds but don't always manage to successfully kick it up a notch when needed. Will this be the same old story for the Russians? We'll see...

Dark horse to look out for: China

This is an ideal opportunity for China to prove themselves. #2 spot in Group B is wide-open with the Czech Republic not being as strong as they could be. China are well-drilled and have the Asian system which confuses many a Western team but they also have a quality big in Chen Nan. The way to beat China is to wear them down and I don't think China's main comp for #2 in Group B, Czech Republic and Spain, can do this. If the Chinese end up at #2, potential crossover opponent, Brazil, is also a good matchup for them. The stage is set for China to make a run at the top 4 and have a chance at a medal.

Random tidbits:

* Yolanda Griffith will turn out to be the second most important player on the US team behind Lisa Leslie.

* Diana Taurasi will have a good tournament... if she can adjust to the international style of play quickly.

* The Australian coach will once again bemuse everyone with her decision making... but Lauren Jackson and Penny Taylor can cover a lot of coaching sins.

* Europe will once again underachieve as a group. The star of Asia is rising. It may not be immediately apparent in this tourney because the Korean team has been hit harder than most by injuries.