A relatively succinct Eastern Conference preview
Friday 21 May 2004
Charlotte Sting
Why they'll win: Superb depth with a good balance of youth and experience
Why they won't: Backcourt too old? Perennial underachievers in the crunch.
The bottom line: Charlotte always look good on paper but except for that brilliant run in 2001, they tend to flop in the postseason. I expect them to have another respectable regular season but the real test will come after that.
Connecticut Sun
Why they'll win: Perimeter offence... uh that's it
Why they won't: No perimeter defence, post game full of mediocre power forwards, no point guard (Debbie Black is injured and is a backup at best)
The bottom line: Connecticut stuffed up when it refused post depth in order to retain Whalen who they're planning to play at the point - what's wrong with this picture? Looks like the Augustus sweepstakes for the Sun.
Detroit Shock
Why they'll win: The defending champions have gotten deeper with youth. No one in the East can match their inside game. Excellent coaching.
Why they won't: Nothing much to say here really.
The bottom line: Close to lock status for the Eastern Conference title. A class above the rest in the East.
Indiana Fever
Why they'll win: Significant upgrades on the perimeter - Catchings will have more help on the offensive end.
Why they won't: Iffy post game - Williams is aging, Hoffman is questionable - potential has been unfulfilled since high school, Ndiaye-Diatta is on IR and Schumacher is a bench warmer in the streamlined WNBA. Also point guard issues - Kelly Miller at the point guard full time may not be such a good idea but if preseason is anything to go by, Ivey isn't ready either.
The bottom line: This is the best the Fever have looked on paper though I don't think they've fulfilled their need in the post. Still this isn't such a big concern in the East and I think the Fever should be able to avoid Detroit in the first round of playoffs. This scenario of #2-#5 parity in the East will be a good test of Winters' relatively unknown coaching abilities.
New York Liberty:
Why they'll win: Dumped (expensive) dead weight in the offseason, injection of youth, NY has a bunch of experienced players who know how to win
Why they won't: Point guard questions, two Euro posts is an issue, their mystique from days gone by is close to gone
The bottom line: New York wanted post help for Tari - so they go out and get another Euro post. Not sure how that works... I don't think Hammon at the point is going to work out that well either. If the Euro posts find some motivation and the Libs solve their PG problem through whoever, the Libs may find themselves at the top of the Eastern amorphous blob below Detroit but I think they'll be at the lower end of it.
Washington Mystics
Why they'll win: They'll finally have some perimeter defence in Alana Beard and Melvin is serviceable in the post. Both can back up Holdsclaw solidly enough in offence.
Why they won't: Have they really filled their needs? TJ is not so much a PG as she is an undersized, shotjacking 2 guard who passes occasionally. Melvin is more of an uninspired forward as opposed to hardworking post.
The bottom line: If TJ and Melvin work out, the Mystics will be at the higher end of the amorphous blob. I don't think TJ will change though and the Mystics will probably find themselves at the lower end of the blob. Like Winters, this will be a good test of Adams' unknown coaching abilities as there is talent on this roster and there are expectations to be fulfilled.
My predicted final standings:
#1 Detroit
#2 Charlotte
#3 Indiana
#4 Washington
#5 New York
#6 Connecticut