Some bracketing thoughts
Tuesday 16 March 2004
Major conference bias is a major theme of this year's NCAA selection process. Good mid-major teams have been supplanted by dubious middling teams of major conferences who have won one or two "good" games. It's not that these middling teams are actually better than these top midmajors - they just have an inflated RPI and SOS due to the fact they're in good conferences. North Carolina State is a perfect example of this - they're only .500 in a "down" year for the ACC, a few games above .500 in overall record and they have only one "good" win which is @ North Carolina. A win at North Carolina should not be enough to give NC State a bid especially when there are mid-majors out there who have performed consistently better over the season. Other major conference teams to benefit from this include Missouri (whose win over Oklahoma got them in) and Maryland (who got in probably because they didn't have any "bad" losses). Mid-majors that can feel rightfully robbed are Richmond, Louisville (how they failed to get in is a mystery - they have similar numbers to Marquette and Marquette got in) and Utah (though having NO Top-50 RPI wins is probably what did them in - still they are probably better than NC State, Missouri or Maryland).
What should mid-majors learn from this? Probably have tougher schedules in the non-conference season (against top 25 RPI teams) and win a game or two against them. So when NCAAs selection time rolls around again, they can show the committee they have the requisite one or two wins against top 25 RPI teams *and* have a better conference record to boot (Missouri got in with a losing conference record). The committee doesn't seem to be smart enough to pick up that top mid-majors can be better than middling major conference teams even though they may not have strung together more than one win against a top 25 RPI team.
Few other notes
* To the few Purdue fans unhappy about not getting a #1 seed - Texas in Seattle is better than Connecticut in Hartford. The draw is more important than the actual seeding.
* ... which is why I am not too upset at Stanford's #6 seeding. Sure the seeding is stupid (Miami-Florida deserves a seed higher than Stanford? I think not) but the draw is good. They get sent to a truly neutral venue (Arizona State) instead of being forced to face UCSB, Montana or New Mexico at home. First round opponent Missouri have some talent but Stanford should have too much firepower for them. Potential second round opponent Oklahoma is an opponent Stanford knows all too well. They're in good form and have a quick backcourt but Stanford will feel motivated against them (due in part to the infamous Borchardt/Caufield incident of a few years back) and quick backcourt aside, Stanford matches up well witn Oklahoma. I feel confident that Stanford can beat Oklahoma because they contained their quick guards well last season when they met and provided the inside game gets going, I think Stanford has a great chance of winning. A potential matchup with Vandy in the Sweet Sixteen will be tough but better than getting Penn State or Connecticut.
* Speaking of Penn State, they potentially have to travel TWICE to the homecourt of lower seeds. And Rene Portland was whinging about the Big 10 tourney being at Indianapolis. Some being has a strange sense of humour...
* West Virginia has the lowest RPI of the teams that received at-large bids - they're at #57. Utah has the highest RPI of teams that missed out on making the NCAAs - they're at #38.
* My seedings weren't too bad and I got some of my random predictions right - Maryland got in and a Big 12 team did get sent to New Mexico (commiserations to Baylor). However I was wrong on the point about the committee's view on subregional hosting influencing seeds. It apparently didn't - bubble Arizona State didn't get in and Chattanooga didn't get a "boosted" seed so that Tennessee could play there (as seen in some projected brackets). Also Stanford didn't get sent to UCSB (woohoo!).
* Sixteen pre-determined sites is the worst of both worlds. Ohio State, Minnesota (with Whalen), Notre Dame and New Mexico (possibly UCSB) are all lower seed teams I expect to capitalise on this dodgy idea.
* Which #1 should be happiest with their bracket? Probably Duke. A potential matchup with Louisiana Tech could be tough in the Sweet Sixteen but the lower half of the Mideast is soft, soft, soft with the higher seeds ALSO having to play on the homecourt of lower seeds.