WNBL roundup: the run home to the playoffs
Wednesday 14 January 2004
Ok I'll be doing something a bit different this week. There's three rounds left in the regular season in the WNBL and there's five teams chasing three playoff spots (Dandenong has secured a playoff spot already). So I'll do a little analysis of the situation and discuss what the teams need to do to make the playoffs.
Here's where teams currently stand, their records against the other playoff contenders and remaining games they have to play. Season series won will be in bold:
#1 Dandenong (14-2)
Records against: CAN (1-1), SYD (3-0), TWN (2-0), ADL (1-1), BUL (2-0)
Remaining games to play (5): BUL (H), CAN (H), ADL (A), PER (A), TWN (H)
#2 Canberra (11-5)
Record against: DAN (1-1), SYD (1-1), TWN (1-1), ADL (1-2), BUL (1-0)
Remaining games to play (5): BUL (A), DAN (A), BUL (H), TWN (H), SYD (A)
#3 Sydney (11-7)
Record against: DAN (0-3), CAN (1-1), TWN (2-0), ADL (2-1), BUL (1-2)
Remaining games to play: AIS (A), TWN (A), CAN (H)
#4 Townsville (10-7)
Record against: DAN (0-2), CAN (1-1), SYD (0-2), ADL (1-2), BUL (2-0)
Remaining games to play: SYD (H), BUL (H), CAN (A), DAN (A)
#5 Adelaide (10-8)
Record against: DAN (1-1), CAN (2-1), SYD (1-2), TWN (2-1), BUL (1-2)
Remaining games to play (3): PER (A), DAN (H), AIS (H)
#6 Bulleen (8-8)
Record against: DAN (0-2), CAN (0-1), SYD (2-1), TWN (0-2), ADL (2-1)
Remaining games to play (5): DAN (A), CAN (H), CAN (A), TWN (A), AIS (H)
Analysis:
Despite the fact Bulleen hold key tiebreakers over Sydney and Adelaide, I give them little hope of making the finals. They have a VERY tough schedule ahead of them - away games at Dandenong, Canberra and Townsville with a home game against Canberra. With the injuries that the AIS have, the game should be a gimme for Bulleen but the other four will see them as underdogs.
Dandenong need to go 3-2 or 2-3 (but beat Canberra) to finish on top of the table and get the double home final. Well there's only one win that is guaranteed in their remaining schedule - the game against Perth. Dandenong *should* beat Bulleen though you never know with the Boomers - they'll fight to the very end. The other three games are hard to call though the game against Canberra should see Dandenong as underdogs (the LJ factor). The other two games should see Dandenong favoured but both should be good games (a visit to Adelaidde and hosting a desperate Townsville).
Sydney needs to go 2-1 to finish third. This would guarantee themselves a home 3rd/4th final. In the case of tied records with Adelaide or Townsville - Sydney wins because they hold the tiebreakers over BOTH Adelaide and Townsville. Mathematically Sydney can catch Canberra but I wouldn't count on it. Sydney have one gimme game - the game against the AIS. If Sydney loses to Canberra (likely but not a sure thing) and Townsville and assuming Adelaide beats Perth and the AIS:
* If Adelaide loses to Dandenong and Townsville go 2-2 or worse
Sydney will finish third and Adelaide will finish fourth.
* If Adelaide beats Dandenong and Townsville go 2-2 or worse
Adelaide will finish third and Sydney will finish fourth
* If Adelaide loses to Dandenong and Townsville go 3-1 or better
Townsville will finish third and Sydney will finish fourth
* If Adelaide beats Dandenong and Townsville go 3-1
Adelaide will be third and Townsville will be fourth. Vice versa if Townsville go 4-0.
From Townsville's perspective if Sydney beats them:
* If Sydney beats Townsville and Adelaide loses to Dandenong
Townsville must win their three other games to make the finals in fourth spot. Sydney will be third.
* If Sydney beats Townsville and Adelaide beats Dandenong
That's it for Townsville. Sydney will be third and Adelaide will be fourth.
To sum it up though, Sydney holds their destiny in their own hands. Two out of three wins and they secure third and a home final. Townsville will need to win three games to make the finals. To get a home final, they will need to beat Sydney in their three out of four and hope Dandenong beat Adelaide. Adelaide should make the finals if they win the games they're supposed to (AIS and Perth) and if Townsville don't win three games.
Townsville are in this tough position in having to win a game on the road in the final round because of their season series losses to Sydney and Adelaide. Just goes to show how important these season series are.
The final Adelaide/AIS game could be interesting if the AIS is at full strength.
Predictions:
Key games:
Sydney @ Townsville
Sydney play well with their backs against the wall and they have Townsville's number. Interestingly enough, Sydney has won the last two games up in Townsville and I believe Townsville are one of the teams in the WNBL that do not match up with Sydney very well as they don't have a strong inside presence that can take advantage of Sydney's weak interior (Brassard is ok but is nowhere near a banger). Sydney to take out a tight one in Townsville.
Dandenong @ Adelaide
Adelaide won the last encounter in Adelaide but that was on the second leg of the Doomsday Double (Perth/Adelaide roadtrip). This time it's the first leg and no doubt the Rangers will put their all into this game. Rangers exploit their depth and better coaching and win the vital one in Adelaide.
I expect Canberra to sweep their remaining 5 games.
I expect Bulleen to go 1-4. They *might* go 2-3 and screw up another team's playoff picture (possibly Townsville's/Dandenong's) but they're not going to beat Canberra and also win all those road games.
Predicted final standings:
#1 Dandenong (18-3)
#2 Canberra (16-5)
#3 Sydney (13-8)
#4 Adelaide (12-9)
#5 Townsville (12-9)
#6 Bulleen (9-12)