Phoenix and the #1 DD pick

Tuesday 06 January 2004

The Rockers dispersal draft is tomorrow and interestingly enough, things have gotten more murky as the draft draws closer. LaToya Thomas is probably still the favourite but the Mercury are considering more options now.

The problem with Thomas is that she is yet ANOTHER power forward for the Mercury. The Mercury already have a good one in Adrian Williams and a solid backup in Kayte Christensen. Add 2003 top four draft pick Plenette Pierson and "current starting centre but is more of a 4" Slobodanka Tuvic and you have a veritable collection of power forwards that don't really need adding to. If the Mercury did draft Thomas, they would probably move Williams to the 5 but in my opinion, this is not a good thing. Adrian is definitely more of a 4 and would be pretty much outgunned at the 5 due to her build.

Thomas is definitely an upgrade scoring-wise over Williams but Williams is better in other areas (rebounding and defence). Thomas probably has the bigger upside but Williams has some good upside too. I really think the Mercury should fulfil other needs first - Adrian is more than an adequate power forward.

So what other options do the Mercury have? If not for the doubts over her availability, Penny Taylor would almost certainly be a lock for the #1 pick. She is the best player in this draft and also had a big upside. She can drive, shoot and post up. Taylor also has improved on the defensive end significantly during her time in the WNBA and has superb ball instincts (deflections and steals). She crashes the boards hard for a 3 and has a good passing eye. She definitely fulfils the Mercury's need for a good wing, something they haven't had since Brandy Reed. Naturally, the Mercury are a bit leery of her though because her availability for 2004 is unknown and they have been burnt by foreign non-shows in the past. Despite this, I think the Mercury should still seriously consider her. Taylor has expressed a desire to commit to the WNBA and even if she didn't turn up for 2004, she would most definitely be in there for the long haul.

Chasity Melvin (not Chastity) is another option for the Mercury. She would fulfil their need for a presence in the middle. Melvin isn't exactly a top-calibre WNBA post and has less upside than Taylor or Thomas but she is more than adequate and could give about 12 points, 7 rebounds, a couple of assists a game with a decent shooting percentage. As a sidenote, taking Melvin would be a really evil thing for Phoenix to do as it would leave Washington at an absolute loss at what to do. I wouldn't vociferously object to Phoenix taking Melvin.

An interesting fourth option would be to draft Thomas but then to actively shop her around for a trade. I think this is a very real option. Swapping her for the #3/#4 collegiate draft pick could work. Indiana wouldn't mind adding to their offensive firepower and an additional quality frontcourt player wouldn't hurt in the matchups against the front heavy Detroit Shock. San Antonio needs some youth in their frontcourt and LaToya Thomas/Gwen Jackson would form a formidable tandem at the 4. With the #3/#4 pick, the Mercury could go for local girl Nicole Powell who would slot in nicely at the 3 or go for Vanessa Hayden who would fill the need for a presence in the middle (and what a presence she is). I'm not relying on Maria Stepanova's return - her return would be a bonus.

So what's going to happen? Hard to say. Thomas is still the frontrunner but I'd say the Taylor option and the trading Thomas option are creeping up. I'll say the Mercury will draft Thomas and then shop her around. If they can't trade her, well she's a nice addition to the team and I'm sure the Mercury will rejig the team as appropriate. What would I do? I'd definitely go for Penny Taylor. Too good to pass up and she *is* committed to the WNBA - just not 2004.

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